Author Topic: The Halladay Trade Alert Level (FIZZLING) (Read 11296 times)

royhalladay32 · « **on:** July 12, 2009, 12:17:44 AM »

Makes a lot sense for teams to be aggressive to get Doc right now, for this season's playoff push. The value of a Halladay does not decline enough in the offseason to offset a possible lesser package than before the deadline.

The non-waiver deadline is July 31. Get ready for 2.5 weeks should be crazy.

The three levels of a Halladay trade:

Elevated:
- GM and player goes public for possible trade
- Writers speculate about scenarios and suitors

Imminent:
- Speculations turn to hearsay sources and rumblings/rumours
- Talks get serious
- All parties involved deny everything

Confirmed:
- Down to the wire, details are smoothed out
- Bags are packed, announcement forthcoming
- Trade is confirmed
- Blue Jays fans everywhere cry a lot and die a little

Current Level: ELEVATED

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/blogs/2009/07/08/givens_blog/
http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/insider/news/story?id=4316520
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/9777314/Jays%27-Halladay-all-but-gone-in-Toronto

kwijibo · « **Reply #1 on:** July 12, 2009, 12:47:47 AM »

This deserves a thread in addition to the current one because....?

The Game · « **Reply #2 on:** July 12, 2009, 04:28:47 AM »

Not sure why another thread was necessary (or for that matter a "trade alert level"), but I don't think they'll trade him because I doubt any team will be willing to offer enough.

Keith Law's opinion: https://twitter.com/keithlaw

corpusse · « **Reply #3 on:** July 12, 2009, 05:57:39 AM »

I really disagree his trade value won't drop in the offseason.

Besides the fact you get him for the stretch run AND a full season, the jays could offer to pay some / most of his remaining salary this year for the right prospects if payroll is the issue for the other team. Obviously that won't happen in the offseason.

Dontavian · « **Reply #4 on:** July 12, 2009, 06:45:03 AM »

I was hoping for a colour-based alert system.

Blacksheep · « **Reply #5 on:** July 12, 2009, 10:23:23 AM »

Anyone see this story? http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/rumors/post/Yankees-feeling-sticker-shock-by-Halladay-price-?urn=mlb,176041

A trade to the Yankees seems unlikely, but what do you think of the four players mentioned, Hughes, Chamberlain, Romine, Jackson?

doc · « **Reply #6 on:** July 12, 2009, 11:54:41 AM »

If trade is imminent & confirmed, I sure hope JP won't make a deal with the top dawg division rival, the damn Yanks.

No one knows how DOC! will come back and haunt Jays in the upcoming seasons.

RobTheGood · « **Reply #7 on:** July 12, 2009, 12:36:05 PM »

Quote from: doc on July 12, 2009, 11:54:41 AM

No one knows how DOC! will come back and haunt Jays in the upcoming seasons.

yeah we do.

He'll kill us every time he steps on the mound.

Lime · « **Reply #8 on:** July 12, 2009, 01:35:16 PM »

Quote from: Blacksheep on July 12, 2009, 10:23:23 AM

Anyone see this story? http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/rumors/post/Yankees-feeling-sticker-shock-by-Halladay-price-?urn=mlb,176041

A trade to the Yankees seems unlikely, but what do you think of the four players mentioned, Hughes, Chamberlain, Romine, Jackson?

Hughes + Romine and Jackson looks like it would be a good deal.

Ultimately, though, I don't think it matters what kind of deal the Jays can get for Halladay. This team has no reasonable shot at making the post-season, playing in this division, unless a spend-happy owner takes over and/or a really, really smart baseball person takes the GM reigns. So would you really want to help the Yankees "win" the WS if, ultimately, the Jays will not reap any tangible benefits from doing so?

If trading or keeping Doc doesn't impact the bottom line (making the playoffs or not at any time in the near and distant future), then I think I would want to see him traded to a team that I like, with the hope that both Roy and that team will win a championship - Minnesota is the first club that comes to mind.

priester · « **Reply #9 on:** July 13, 2009, 07:57:18 AM »

Quote from: doc on July 12, 2009, 11:54:41 AM

If trade is imminent & confirmed, I sure hope JP won't make a deal with the top dawg division rival, the damn Yanks.

No one knows how DOC! will come back and haunt Jays in the upcoming seasons.

I beleive he said last week that he'd have no problem trading to them because he could easily go there as a free agent anyways and if they have to face the possibility of playing him that much anyways, he will take the best offer, no matter who it is from.

That siad, I still think he'll be a Jay on August 1st.

royhalladay32 · « **Reply #10 on:** July 13, 2009, 09:36:21 AM »

I like the Phillies' prospects package the best so far, according to the rumours. Get two good quality arms and a good SS. Angels seem to lack a sure-fire prospect, more quantity than quality. Braves could make things interesting if they include Hanson, very doubtful though.

Quote from: corpusse on July 12, 2009, 05:57:39 AM

I really disagree his trade value won't drop in the offseason.

Besides the fact you get him for the stretch run AND a full season, the jays could offer to pay some / most of his remaining salary this year for the right prospects if payroll is the issue for the other team. Obviously that won't happen in the offseason.

During offseasons, GMs know what they want to do with the team and budgets are clearer. Since Halladay is going to make like $15M (pro-rated this season) and next season, it's easier for managers/owners to do a big trade during the offseason... especially if a Wells/Rios-salary is attached with it. Also, it'll be easier for them to negotiate an extension with Doc, because they can't do that during the season.

But then again, some owners can make exceptions for a player like Halladay during the season.

Quote from: Blacksheep on July 12, 2009, 10:23:23 AM

Anyone see this story? http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/rumors/post/Yankees-feeling-sticker-shock-by-Halladay-price-?urn=mlb,176041

A trade to the Yankees seems unlikely, but what do you think of the four players mentioned, Hughes, Chamberlain, Romine, Jackson?

I think Chamberlain is overrated, hyped up for the New York media. Think Halladay wouldn't prefer NY or BOS (he has a full no-trade) because he is a low key guy. Those two teams might give a good shot at winning, but the AL East is no guarantee every year (as he should know). He might prefer the west coast (Angels) or the NL.

Quote from: priester on July 13, 2009, 07:57:18 AM

I beleive he said last week that he'd have no problem trading to them because he could easily go there as a free agent anyways and if they have to face the possibility of playing him that much anyways, he will take the best offer, no matter who it is from.

That siad, I still think he'll be a Jay on August 1st.

JP should just use BOS and NY to drive the trade package up. PR disaster to the dwindling fanbase to see Doc pitch against Toronto 8 times a year.

Dirtybird · « **Reply #11 on:** July 13, 2009, 09:51:34 AM »

Quote from: Lime on July 12, 2009, 01:35:16 PM

Hughes + Romine and Jackson looks like it would be a good deal.

Ultimately, though, I don't think it matters what kind of deal the Jays can get for Halladay. This team has no reasonable shot at making the post-season, playing in this division, unless a spend-happy owner takes over and/or a really, really smart baseball person takes the GM reigns. So would you really want to help the Yankees "win" the WS if, ultimately, the Jays will not reap any tangible benefits from doing so?

I don't completely agree with that. I think that it's far more possible to make the post season in this division than most people think. I don't think that the Red Sox of this year could come close to touching the Yankees of the late 90's/early 00's. The Jays just need to go about it the right way and be way more smarter with their money. You shouldn't spend your money as soon as you get it (like JP has been in the habit of doing).

The critical thing is to hire the best front office staff possible. It's by far the most cost-effective move (GM and executives are paid a pittance compared to even veteran role players) and no one shapes the direction of a franchise more than they do. There is no substitute for good decision-making. Unfortunately, I think that this organization thinks that it's closer to competing than it actually is and I fear that they make the Halladay trade with more focus on short-term return than they should.

royhalladay32 · « **Reply #12 on:** July 13, 2009, 11:54:55 AM »

Halladay puts 50-50 chances on trade
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=4324204

Gotta love Doc. He can sound genuine and honest (and probably is) and also not slip up and say something that will hurt his trade value. Pitch in NL or bigger market... that's about 20 of 29 possible teams.

President Palin · « **Reply #13 on:** July 13, 2009, 04:18:02 PM »

Time to go to DEFCON 4!!!!

otto · « **Reply #14 on:** July 13, 2009, 09:17:44 PM »

Watching Doc's comments tonight on RSN.
Sounds like he wants to go. I think there's more going on than we know.
He said something like "I'm at the point where I want to try and take a chance and win".
How do you stay after saying something like that?

Maybe I'm over-reacting but it sounds like a slap in the face to the team.

corpusse · « **Reply #15 on:** July 13, 2009, 09:29:12 PM »

He seemed really torn tonight, and mentioned how much he loved Toronto several times during the derby.

I don't see how it's a slap in the face. He twice signed below market deals and never once did not give the team 100% be in in spring training or when they're 10 games back before the break ect.

otto · « **Reply #16 on:** July 13, 2009, 09:55:05 PM »

Quote from: corpusse on July 13, 2009, 09:29:12 PM

He seemed really torn tonight, and mentioned how much he loved Toronto several times during the derby.

I don't see how it's a slap in the face. He twice signed below market deals and never once did not give the team 100% be in in spring training or when they're 10 games back before the break ect.

I see what you mean, but I guess I should clarify that I mean it seems like a slap to his teammates. It seems like he's saying we can't win with these guys. READ: Vernon. Which they probably can't right now.

EDIT: I'm starting to get confused about who really wants the trade. Until today it seemed like JP was saying "We'll listen" and it was Jays brass who thought maybe the time was right. But then hearing Doc today, I wonder if he's pushing this. How does he know if a trade could be 50-50?

The Game · « **Reply #17 on:** July 14, 2009, 04:41:37 AM »

Quote from: otto on July 13, 2009, 09:55:05 PM

EDIT: I'm starting to get confused about who really wants the trade. Until today it seemed like JP was saying "We'll listen" and it was Jays brass who thought maybe the time was right. But then hearing Doc today, I wonder if he's pushing this. How does he know if a trade could be 50-50?

I doubt he has any real insight right now as to whether he'll be traded. It's up to Ricciardi (and ownership) to decide if the offers are good enough to part with him. So far they haven't been.

All that we know today is he will definitely waive his no-trade clause if the Jays trade him to a contender. Which isn't surprising, nor is it insulting to the Jays. They aren't contenders, and Roy Halladay wants to win.

bluejaysguys · « **Reply #18 on:** July 14, 2009, 04:46:03 AM »

Quote from: otto on July 13, 2009, 09:55:05 PM

I see what you mean, but I guess I should clarify that I mean it seems like a slap to his teammates. It seems like he's saying we can't win with these guys. READ: Vernon. Which they probably can't right now.

EDIT: I'm starting to get confused about who really wants the trade. Until today it seemed like JP was saying "We'll listen" and it was Jays brass who thought maybe the time was right. But then hearing Doc today, I wonder if he's pushing this. How does he know if a trade could be 50-50?

He also said he would prefer to win in Toronto. I don't think he requested a trade or anything like that. He is just weighing what's best for himself for once. If there is another explosion/rebuild I don't think he will want to stick around for that. If Rogers were to increase payroll and JP could put together a playoff type team he'd love nothing more than to stay IMO.

I don't think the payroll will increase and I don't this team is close to contending, so Doc could be gone. In all honesty I believe it is best for both parties. The team has some pieces to make a run. Hill, Lind, Romero, Doc, Downs, Rolen, Scutaro. Will see. It will be a sad day in Toronto if Doc is traded.

London Knights · « **Reply #19 on:** July 14, 2009, 07:48:36 AM »

This might be shocking but there are two options:

1 - Halladay is traded
2 - Halladay is not traded

JP isn't going to trade Halladay for a can of Eric Hinske, Tim Wakefield, and other filler. The Jays either get a big package or they don't.

Saying 50/50 really means nothing. What was telling to me was that Doc was willing to be moved however as in the past he was more evasive and clear that he wanted to stay in Toronto. He would make comments about winning, but he was jumping around how he talked about the Jays being able to do so.

The Jays won't win with Vernon Wells hitting in the 3-5 spots in the order. They also won't win with Kevin Millar/David Delucci playing so often. They are one 3-4-5 bat away from being a real offensive threat. They are two pitchers/the maturation of guys to be more consistent from being a contending rotation.

If Romero is pitching to his potential right now Doc - Romero is a great 1-2 punch. Cecil has #1 potential, but he is inconsistent right now. Next year he might iron out those inconsistencies. Marcum was pitching like a #2 pitching before being injured so slotting him as #2/3 pitcher would potentially give the Jays four top 2 rotation guys next year. But at best we are talking about next year and if you are going to trade Halladay I think now is the time to do it. The longer you wait, the more you are going to hope the team turns around and how awful would it be to trade Halladay next year when the team might have a shot with a more mature pitching staff.